2004-2012年江苏口岸HIV感染者流行特征及GM（1,1）趋势预测

翁赟琦1，陆永昌2，吴海磊3，张纯3，钱吉生3，罗岚2，殷竹君2，沈冲1

　　1.南京医科大学公共卫生学院，江苏 南京 211166；2.江苏出入境检验检疫局；3.南京出入境检验检疫局

　　摘要：目的 分析口岸人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）感染者的流行特征，建立检出率趋势预测灰色模型（GM）。方法以2004-2012年江苏口岸检出的214例HIV感染者及出入境人员为研究对象，在知情同意的基础上进行流行病学调查，明确流行特征，应用灰色系统理论建立口岸艾滋病检出率的预测模型。结果口岸HIV感染者以男性中年人为主，学历层次较低，2004-2012年检出率平均值为总体平衡在0.0002210，需要努力加以控制。经性途径传播是出入境人员主要的HIV传播方式。GM（1，1）预测检出率效果好，2011、2012年检出率分别为0.000246、0.000230，预测检出率分别是0.000210、0.000230，预测准确性高于85%。与实际检出率平均差异为7.48%。结论口岸HIV感染者有其独特的流行病学特征，在GM方法的基础上，要提高社会支持力度，实施唾液快速检测，注重宣传教育的实效性。

　　关键词：人类免疫缺陷病毒；流行特征；趋势预测灰色模型；口岸

　　中图分类号：R512.91　文献标识码：B

　　Epidemic characteristics and GM (1,1) prediction of HIV

　　infection at Jiangsu ports from 2004 to 2012

　　WENG Yun-qi*，LU Yong-chang， WU Hai-lei， ZHANG Chun， QIANJi-sheng， LUO Lan， YIN Zhu-jun， SHEN Chong

　　*School of Public Health，Nanjing Medical University，Nanjing，Jiangsu 211166，China

　　Abstract:   Objective   To analyze the epidemiologicalfeatures of port HIV infection, and to establish GM method topredict the trend of infection rate.   Methods   A totalof 214 cases with HIV infection at Jiangsu ports from 2004~2012 andthe entry-exit personnel as the research object, epidemiologicalsurvey was conducted on the basis of informed consent, the epidemiccharacteristics were analyzed, prediction model of grey systemtheory was applied to establish person’s detection rate of HIV.   Results   Most people with HIV infection were inmiddle-aged men, with low education level. The average detectionrate was the overall balance in 0.0002210, also need to work hardto control the epidemic situation. Sexual transmission was the mainHIV communication mode of entry-exit person. GM (1, 1) based on thedata from 2004 to 2012 to predict the detection rate had goodeffect, the actual average difference was 7.48%. The detection rateof 2011 and 2012 were 0.000246 and 0.000230, the prediction ratewere 0.000210 and 0.000230. The prediction accuracy was more than85%.   Conclusion   The port HIV infection has its uniqueepidemiological features. On the basis of GM method, the socialsupport, the rapid detection of saliva, and the effectiveness ofhealth education need to be improved.

　　Key words:   HIV； Epidemiological characteristics； GM（1,1）；Port

　　《中国国境卫生检疫杂志》2014年2月刊