国境口岸传染病流行风险评估体系的建立及应用研究

    裘炯良1，郑剑宁1，浦昀2，施惠祥1，张锜1，卢岳云1

    1．宁波出入境检验检疫局，浙江　宁波　315012；2．国家质检总局卫生检疫监管司

   摘要：目的建立科学、实用的国境口岸传染病流行风险评估体系。方法应用文献梳理、专家评估方法选定口岸传染病流行风险评估指标，以风险矩阵的半定量法作为评估工具，将风险评估指标归类于口岸传染病传播风险和易感风险两个风险维度，同时设定判定规则。构建的风险评估体系应用区域或全球流行的经典传染病案例进行回顾性综合分析，结合其实际流行与否的事实，来修正完善风险评估体系。结果构建的口岸传染病流行风险评估体系包含目标层、准则层和指标层3个层级，由疾病严重性、疾病超预期性、新发或再发传染病、具有特殊的事件背景、国际/国内流行态势、防控难度和易感度等9项风险因子组成，共覆盖到24个风险评估指标，以及对应的综合判定规则和配套的风险评估矩阵。同时，经中东呼吸综合征(新型冠状病毒病)、人感染H7N9禽流感、甲型H1N1流感等典型传染病流行案例的验证，评估结果与事实的一致度较高。结论构建的口岸传染病流行风险评估体系适用于出入境检验检疫机构对国境口岸传染病流行的风险预判，同时在此基础上，仍需组建风险评估专家组，配合应用该体系，以进一步提升风险评估的有效性和准确度。

    关键词：风险评估；指标体系；流行；传染病

    中图分类号：R181.2　文献标识码：B

    Establishment and application of risk assessmentsystem for epidemic of communicable disease at frontier ports

    QIU Jiong-liang*, ZHENG Jian-ning， PU Yun, SHIHui-xiang, ZHANG Qi, LU Yue-un

    *Ningbo Entry-exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau,Ningbo，  Zhejiang 315012,China

    Abstract:   Objective   To establish ascientific and efficient risk assessment system for epidemic ofcommunicable diseases at frontier ports.  Methods   Theliterature searching and expertise were employedused for screeningrisk assessment indexes of epidemic of communicable diseases, andrisk matrix was used as assessment tool. All of the risk assessmentindexes were classified as two risk dimensions including spreadingand susceptible risks. This system was rectified by means ofclassical cases of epidemic communicable diseases.  Results  Three levels in the established system which included ninerisk factors such as severity, unpredictable, new or re-emergingdisease and so on. Total of 24 risk assessment indexes werecovered. Then synthetical regulation and risk matrix wereestablished. The system was rectified by the classical casesincluding Middle East respiratory syndrome (Novel coronavirusinfections), avian influenza A(H7N9), avian influenza A(H1N1) andso on. The results of risk assessment were highly coherence withthe epdemiological facts.  Conclusion   The riskassessment system is useful for the risk assessment for epidemic ofcommunicable diseases at frontier ports. And the risk assessmentexpert group should be enrolled for increasing the efficiency andveracity of the system.

    Key words:   Risk assessment；Indexsystem；Epidemic；Communicable disease

    《中国国境卫生检疫杂志》2013年10月刊