余华丽1,常晓松1,赵莹2,何建伟1,郭勇1,王志杰1,何纬1,谭玲1,张祖昌1
1.四川出入境检验检疫局卫生检疫处,四川 成都610041;2.四川大学华西公共卫生学院
摘要:目的 应用差分自回归移动平均模型(Autoregressive IntegratedMoving Averagemodel,ARIMA),分析和预测四川口岸出境人员中乙肝表面抗原(HBsAg)阳性疫情,为制定防治对策和措施提供科学依据。方法利用2007年—2011年四川国际旅行卫生保健中心出境人员HBsAg逐月监测数据,使用SAS9.1统计软件,建立ARIMA模型。结果ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12模型较好地拟合了既往时间段上的阳性检出率序列,各参数估计均有统计学意义,用该模型进行回代预测,预测检出率与实际检出率吻合程度较高。结论ARIMA模型可用于四川口岸出境人员HBsAg阳性检出率的动态分析和短期预测。
关键词:乙型病毒性肝炎;乙肝表面抗原;差分自回归移动平均模型;出境人员;分析;预测
中图分类号:R512.6+2 文献标识码:B
Analysis and prediction on epidemic situationof HBsAg positive among exit personnel at Sichuan ports by theARIMA Mode
YU Hua-li*, CHANG Xiao-song, ZHAO Ying, HEJian-wei, GUO Yong,
WANG Zhi-jie, HE Wei, TAN Ling, ZHANGZu-chang
*Sichuan Entry-Exit Inspection and QuarantineBureau, Sichuan Chengdu, 610041,China
Abstract: Objective To analyze and predict the epidemic situation of HBsAg positiveamong exit personnel at Sichuan ports by the ARIMA model, and toprovide scientific evidence for control and prevention ofdisease. Methods The ARIMA model was set up basedon the HBsAg positive epidemic monitoring data of exit personnel inSichuan international travel healthcare center during2007~2011. Results The time series of HBsAgpositive epidemic accorded with ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model. Thedifference of the parametes was statistically significant. Thepredicted rate had better accord with the observed rate. Conclusion The ARIMA model can be used to analyze andpredict the HBsAg positive epidemic situation of outbound personnelin short-term future.
Key words: Hepatitis B;HBsAg; ARIMA model;Exit personnel;Analysis; Prediction
《中国国境卫生检疫杂志》2013年第1期