国际邮轮传染病疫情事件风险识别与评估报告

   卢钟山1，李平1，田桢干1，史方1，王桂江1，王俐1，孔成子1，张玉红1，姜延飞1，章琪2

    1.上海出入境检验检疫局，上海 200135；2.上海国际旅行卫生保健中心

    摘要：目的通过对国际邮轮传染病疫情开展风险评估与识别，为实施国际邮轮卫生检疫风险管理和制定传染病疫情控制策略提供科学依据。方法采用危险因素评估法、风险矩阵法和德尔斐（Delphi）评价法，通过相关领域专家调查问卷形式，对国际邮轮传染病疫情事件开展风险识别与评估。结果霍乱和肉毒毒素中毒为极严重的风险，包括诺如病毒和甲型H1N1流感在内的等19类疾病为高危险度风险，隐孢子虫等4种疾病为中危险度风险。结论明确了国际邮轮各种传染病等相关事件的主要风险，找出了风险控制的关键点，为有针对性进行技术储备和建立一套系统完善的国际邮轮疫情防控体系奠定了基础。

    关键词：国际邮轮；传染病；风险识别；风险评估

    中图分类号：R184.6　文献标识码：B

    Report on the risk identification andassessment

    of infectious disease

    LU Zhong-shan*, LI Ping，TIAN Zhen-gan, SHIFang, WANG Gui-jiang, WANG Li,

    KONG Cheng-zi, ZHANG Yu-hong, JIANG Yan-fei,ZHANG qi

    *Shanghai Entry-Exit Inspection andQuarantine Bureau, Shanghai 200135,China

    Abstract:   Objective  To provide a scientific basis for the risk management of quarantineof international cruise and control of the infectiousdiseases.  Methods   Expert survey was used tocollect infectious diseases information. The methods of Riskfactors assessment, risk matrix and Delphi evaluation were used fordata analysis, risks identification and assessment. Results   Cholera and Botulinum toxin were the mostserious risks， while 19 kinds of high-risk diseases includingNorovirus and novel influenza A(H1N1) and 4 kinds of medium riskdiseases such as Cryptosporidium were assessed.Conclusion   The main risk of infectious diseases eventon international cruise was recognized and the key point of riskcontrol was found， which are the foundation of technical reservesand a system for of infectious diseases prevention on internationalcruise.

    Key words:   International cruise；Infectious disease； Risk identification; Risk assessment

    《中国国境卫生检疫杂志》2013年第1期