出入境特殊物品风险评估体系建立和评估软件研究

    尹军1，黄坚辉2，丁永健1，陈亨赐1，陆永昌1

    1.江苏出入境检验检疫局卫监处，江苏 南京 210001；2.太仓出入境检验检疫局

    摘要：目的分析出入境特殊物品可产生传染病等危害的各个风险因子，建立出入境特殊物品风险评估的风险指标体系和数学模型，并编写相应的计算机软件。方法采用专家咨询法建立特殊物品风险评估的指标体系，采用层次分析法确定各风险因子权重，使用Expert Choice2000软件进行数据处理。使用Visual Basic软件和Access数据库系统编写软件。结果研究建立了出入境特殊物品风险指标评估体系，包括3个一级指标、7个二级指标和20个三级指标。采用数学模型对特殊物品风险进行综合评估。出入境特殊物品风险综合评估值≤0.019为极低程度风险；0.019~1.374为较低程度风险；1.374~2.352为较高程度风险；≥2.352为极高程度风险。结论出入境特殊物品分类的复杂性是造成开展风险评估困难的主要原因。开展风险评估是提升出入境特殊物品检疫监管效率的重要途径。当前出入境特殊物品风险评估关键在于风险的识别和量化。

    关键词：特殊物品；风险评估；数学模型；软件；出入境

    中图分类号：R512.99　文献标识码：B

    Establishment of the risk assessment modeland study of the risk

    evaluation software for special products

    YIN Jun*, HUANG Jian-hui, DING Yong-jian,CHEN Heng-ci, LU Yong-chang

    *Jiangsu Entry-Exit Inspection and QuarantineBureau, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210001 China

    Abstract:   Objective  To analyze various risk factors for special products which couldlead to infectious diseases spreading, and to establish a riskindex system and a mathematical model for special products riskassessment and to program the corresponding computersoftware.   Methods   The experts consultationmethod was used to establish the risk index system. Analytichierarchy process (AHP) was used to determine index weights of alllevels. Expert Choice 2000 software was used for statisticalanalysis while Visual Basic and Access Database are used forsoftware programming.   Results   Theentry-exit special products risk assessment system included 3first-degree indexes ,7 second-degree indexes and 20 third-degreeindexes. The mathematical model was used to comprehensively assessthe risk of special products. The risk assessment value ofentry-exit special products which was equal to or less than 0.019was classified as minimal risk level ; and 0.019~1.374 as low risklevel; and 1.374~2.352 as high risk level; and the value was morethan or equal to 2.352 as maximal risk. Conclusion   The classification of special products isthe main difficulties for the risk assessment. It is an importantway to enhance the efficiency of quarantine and supervision withspecial products by risk assessment. And the key to the riskassessment is how to identify and quantify the risks.

    Key words:   Special products; RiskAssessment; Mathematical model; Software; Entry-exit

    《中国国境卫生检疫杂志》2012年第6期