天津港国际航行船舶卫生风险分析及评估模型的建立

   关淳1，谭绪良1，周君野1，高旗利1，孟东平1，张志强1，刘鹏1，谢庚发1，尹智华2

    1.天津出入境检验检疫局，天津 300457；2.中国医科大学

    摘要：目的通过对天津港2010年所有入境国际航行船舶资料进行分析，找出影响船舶卫生状况的风险因素，并建立数学模型。方法利用AMOS建立数学模型，应用主成分分析与多元回归方法对资料进行统计分析，最终得到国际航行船舶卫生风险数学模型。结果筛选船员国籍、船舶经营者、来自疾病流行区、月份、船龄等16个危险因素，建立了结构方程模型。结论通过建立影响国际航行船舶卫生风险的数学模型，使入境国际航行船舶卫生风险定量化。

    关键词：船舶；卫生；风险分析；评估模型

    中图分类号：R181 R185.1　文献标识码：B

    Report of hazard analysis and establishmenton predicting model of health

    risk of entry-exit vehicles at TianjinPort

    GUAN Chun*, TAN Xu-liang, ZHOU Jun-ye, GAOQi-li, MENG Dong-ping, ZHANG Zhi-qiang, LIU Peng, XIE Geng-fa, YIZhi-hua

    *Tianjin Entry-exit Inspection and QuarantineBureau, Tianjin 300457,China

    Abstract:   Objective  Based on the data analysis in 2010, and to find out the riskfactors which influence the sanitary conditions of the Entry-exitVehicles, and to set up predicting model.  Methods   Based on the model of AMOS, principal componentanalysis and multivariate analysis were conducted, and themathematical model was established based on the hazard-analysistheory.   Results    From statisticsanalysis, a total of 16 risk factors were identified such as crews’nationalities, manager, coming from epidemic region, the month ofdisembarking, the years of shipping service, etc, and establishedthe mathematical model.   Conclusion   Using the relative model, we can quantify the health risk and thecorresponding risk factors on Entry-exit vehicles.

    Key words:   Vehicles; Health;Hazard-analysis; Predicting model

    《中国国境卫生检疫杂志》