口岸传染病风险评估指标体系建立的研究

    许丽波，刘丰，孙丽萍，马晓光

    中国检验检疫科学研究院卫生检疫研究所，北京 100123

    摘要：目的建立口岸传染病传入、传播和扩散的风险评估指标体系，以科学的方式评估传染病通过口岸传入的风险。方法综合考虑病原学、流行病学、生态学、社会学等多方面因素，应用德尔菲法和层次分析法建立传染病风险评估指标体系。结果研究确定了风险识别的过程框架和口岸传染病传入、传播和扩散的风险评估指标体系，体系包括1个目标层R、5个准则层（R1-R5）及若干指标层。结论依据风险评估的基本原理，初步建立传染病经口岸传入、传播及扩散的风险因素指标体系。

    关键词：传染病；风险评估；风险识别；指标体系

    中图分类号：R184.3　文献标识码：B

    Research on risk assessment index system ofinfectious diseases at port

    XU Li-bo, LIU Feng, SUN Li-bing, MAXiao-guang

    Institute of Health Quarantine， ChineseAcademy of Inspection and Quarantine Sciences， Beijing 100123,China

    Abstract:   Objective  To establish an risk assessment index system on the import,transmission and spread of infectious disease at Port.  Methods   Based on the Delphi Method and AnalyticHierarchy Process (AHP), Model the problem as a hierarchycontaining the decision goal, the alternatives for reaching it, andthe criteria for evaluating the alternatives. Results  Theprocess framework and index system are established and the indexsystem consists of an overall goal, 5 criteria that relate to thegoal and the criteria can be further broken down into many elementsas the problem requires. Conclusion   On the basis ofscientific process and principles of risk assessment, an riskassessment index system on the import, transmission and spread ofinfectious disease at Port has been established.

    Key words:   Infectious Disease;Risk assessment; Risk identification; Index system

    《中国国境卫生检疫杂志》