趋势面分析在国境口岸蝇类密度监测中应用

    张述铿 肖 武 黄恩炯 姜荣富 林少炜   （1.福建国际旅行卫生保健中心，福州 350001；2.福建出入境检验检疫局，福州 350001；3.福建医科大学，福州350004）

    摘要 〔目的〕对国境口岸蝇类年平均密度分布特点以及年平均气温与降雨量对其密度影响程度进行探索研究，了解国境口岸蝇类密度地理空间的分布规律及气候因素对其影响的特点。〔方法〕对36个口岸蝇类年平均密度资料应用趋势面及残差分析法进行分析。〔结果〕建立经纬度的蝇密度三阶趋势面函数(拟合优度为72.23％)和气温降雨量的蝇密度三阶趋势面函数(拟合优度为63.30％),残差分析显示：以上两种函数的正残差值共同高于界值的有日照港、宁德、马尾口岸；共同低于负残差界值的有扬州港和福清江阴港。〔结论〕三阶趋势面函数能较好地描述蝇密度口岸分布；蝇密度地理坐标空间分布规律是东南地域密度趋高，气温降雨量的蝇密度分布规律显示一定的气温加适宜的降雨量是密度趋高的关键；残差分析中某些特殊口岸可能存在不良因素使蝇类密度趋高。

    关键词 蝇类；趋势面分析；蝇密度分布；残差分析

    〔中图分类号〕　R311　〔文献标识码〕　B

    Application of Trend-surface Analysis onSurveillance of Fly Density at Frontier Ports   ZhangShukeng1, Xiao Wu1, Huang Enjiong1，Jiang Rongfu2，Lin Shaowei3 (1.Fujian International Travel Health Care Center, Fuzhou350001,China; 2. Fujian Entry-Exit Inspection and QuarantineBureau, Fuzhou 350001,China; 3.Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou350004, China.)

    [Abstract]   Objective  To explore the fly density in longitude and latitude as well as intemperature and rainfall of frontier ports in China, and to findout the characteristics on the geographic space distribution andclimatic influence facfors on fly density. Methods   Thedata of annual average fly density collected from 36 frontier portswas analyzed by trend-surface analysis and residualsanalysis.  Results Third-order trend-surface function（goodness of fit 72.63％） of fly density in longitude and latitudeand third-order trend-surface function (goodness of fit 63.30％)offly density in temperature and rainfall were adapted toestablished. Residual analysis suggests that the ports exceedingthe boundary of positive residuals values were Rizhao Port, Ningdeand Mawei Port, and the ports with negative ones were Yangzhou Portand Fuqing Jiangyin Ports.  Conclusion   Three-ordertrend-surface functions can be suited to describe the distributionof fly densities at frontier ports. The geographic distributiontrend of fly average densities in longitude and latitude shows thatthe density is higher in the southeastern China, and the flydensity distribution in temperature and rainfall shows that the keyto the higher trend in the southeast is the proper temperature withfit rainfall. There are some risk factors to higher the fly densityat some ports with higher positive residual.

    [Key words]   Fly；Trend-surface analysis；Fly density distribution; Residualanalysis