国际航行船舶外来蜚蠊传入风险的logistic回归分析

    张治富，宁瑞瑜，高建功，许晓银

　　河北出入境检验检疫局京唐港办事处，河北 唐山 063611

　　摘要：目的  探讨国际航行船舶传入蜚蠊风险情况及其影响因素logistic回归分析。方法 从《口岸信息管理系统》内提取相关研究因素，采用单因素分析及多因素非条件logistic回归分析对影响因素进行筛选。采用SPSS13.0进行统计描述与分析。结果 进行多因素logistic回归分析消除各变量间干扰因素后可见，对国际航行船舶外来蜚蠊传入存在影响的因素包括总吨位、船龄、船舶类型及卫生状况（P < 0.05）。结论 对国际航行船舶传入蜚蠊风险性影响因素进行筛选分析，可有效提高口岸拦截水平，提高一线船舶卫生检疫和监督水平。

　　关键词：国境航行船舶；蜚蠊；logistic回归

　　中图分类号：R384  文献标识码：B

　　Statistical analysis on risk factors of cockroach carried

　　with entry-exit international ships

　　ZHANG Zhi-fu， NING Rui-yu， GAO Jian-gong， XU Xiao-yin

　　Hebei Entry-exit Inspection and Quarantine Bureau， Tangshan，Hebei 063611， China

　　Abstract： Objective To explore the risk factors associated withexotic cockroach carried with entry-exit international ships.Methods Extracted related factors from the information managementsystem， the data were analyzed by univariate and multivariatelogistic regression. SPSS 13.0 software was adopted to realize thedata processing and statistical analysis. Results  The riskfactors were associated with exotic cockroach carried withentry-exit international ships. The factors included gross tonnage，vessel varieties， the age of vessel and sanitary conditions（P <0.05）. Conclusion  By analyzing the risk factors of cockroachcarried with international navigation ships， the invasion ofcockroach can be effectively prevented， first-line ship sanitationquarantine and the level of supervision can be improved at the sametime.

　　Key words： International navigate ship； Cockroach； Logisticregression

　　《中国国境卫生检疫杂志》2014年3期